While 46 percent of likely voters predicted Obama will lose next year, 41 percent said he will win, a narrow margin just outside the poll’s margin of error that reflects the public’s split opinion about the president. The remaining 13 percent were unsure.

When it comes to grading his first term, 51 percent of polled voters said Obama was either a failure (37 percent) or not very successful (14 percent), while 48 percent said he was either very successful (16 percent) or somewhat successful (32 percent).

Predictably, 77 percent of Republicans said there will be no second term for Obama while 70 percent of Democrats said there will be. Independents predicted 43 percent to 40 percent that Obama will be reelected, but that 3-point difference was within the poll’s margin of error. If the 17 percent of independents who are unsure could be persuaded to break Obama’s way, they could be the key to his victory.