Ten factors that will determine Newt's chances in Iowa

5. IF KINGMAKERS TURN AWAY

The “zipper” warnings from Christian conservatives are designed to stop endorsements from the Family Leader and its leader, Bob Vander Plaats.

Romney backer Christopher Rants, a fellow Sioux Citian, said an endorsement by the Family Leader “is worth something for its ability to activate people and to have their imprimatur.”

A nod from the Christian advocacy group, or, separately, from U.S. Rep. Steve King, would be huge for Gingrich because he could tap into networks that would supplement his organization.

Rivals worry that Gingrich is Vander Plaats’ obvious pick, because Gingrich chipped in nearly $200,000 toward Vander Plaats’ successful effort last fall to oust three Iowa Supreme Court justices who had participated in the ruling that legalized same-sex marriage.

An anonymous group didn’t mince words when it posted an online “Merry Christmas” video last week that argues the Family Leader would be hypocritical to endorse Gingrich, “the family leaver.”