Mitt Romney has begun airing a new television ad (“Leader,” above) that’s being widely interpreted as a not-so-subtle attack on Newt Gingrich’s eventful marital history. (Maybe you’ve heard about that?) The idea seems to be that by touting his own lengthy marriage to the same woman, and stressing his religious faith, Romney is sounding a dog whistle that social conservatives will pick up on and respond to in a way that accrues to his benefit. Count me as deeply skeptical about the effectiveness of this approach. Like Romney’s strategy of airily refusing to engage with his competitors — a strategy I endorsed that now seems to be backfiring — it wouldn’t surprise me if this one backfired, too.

My doubts rest on a number of factors. First, while granting that Gingrich’s multiple marriages and admitted adulterous affair hold no appeal for social conservatives, his current marriage to Callista has always struck me as obviously genuine and happy — and even sort of sweet. While stipulating that no outsider can possibly know what’s really going on in a politician’s personal life (see: Edwards, John), I’ve witnessed the Gingriches in semi-private — and Tweeted about it, like a lout — and it’s no exaggeration to say that Newt dotes on his wife. Not in a marching-the-missus-on-stage-let’s-give-her-a-round-of-applause sort of way, but in an awkward, heartfelt way that’s hard to fake and a bit embarrassing to behold.