The reason these endorsements matter is not that voters care about them all that much about them in a literal sense; a swing voter in Jacksonville, Fla., is unlikely to have her choice swayed by a Romney endorsement from Representative Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan. Rather, they are a signal of party or institutional support as compared to popular support (which is best reflected in the polls).
Usually, these indicators are in strong alignment with one another by this point in the campaign. In nomination campaigns from 1980 through 2008, the correlation between the share of endorsements headed into the Iowa caucuses and a candidate’s vote share in the national polls has been about 90 percent.
They are not very well aligned this year, however. Although Mr. Romney has 55 percent of the endorsements, he has just 24 percent in national polls, excluding undecided voters, according to the latest Real Clear Politics average. Conversely, Mr. Gingrich has just 5 percent of the Endorsement Points but is at 27 percent in the polls, excluding undecideds.
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