If demography is destiny, Democrats are in trouble

Between June and August 2011, Gallup interviewed more than 78,000 adults, evenly divided between the two parties. Among Democrats, 52 percent say they “seldom” or “never” attend religious services; among Republicans, 61 percent go to church or synagogue once a month or more.

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Even more surprisingly, 54 percent of Democrats say today they are single; up sharply from the 48 percent of the donkey party who counted as unmarried before Obama’s election. For the GOP, on the other hand, the great bulk of its support (62 percent) continues to come from married adults.

As a party overwhelmingly comprised of churchgoers and married people, the Republicans not only mirror the nation at large (where solid majorities are currently married and attend religious services at least monthly), but, more important, connect to nearly universal American aspirations…

The reason that married, churchgoing people disproportionately develop Republican affiliation has less to do with conservative convictions on divisive social issues (like abortion, guns, or gay marriage) and more to do with distrust of big government and preferred reliance on intimate arrangements. The great conservative philosopher and parliamentarian Edmund Burke emphasized the importance of the “little platoons” of civil society—family, church, community, business—above centralized institutions of government. People who can count on religious involvement and family support networks to help with the basic needs of existence (from child care to elder care) will feel less desire for costly, intrusive, bureaucratic programs to satisfy daily demands. On the other hand, the unmarried and the un-churched count as far more likely to feel alone and unprotected, supporting expansive, activist government to address their urgent needs.

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