“A caucus state like Iowa is tailor-made to maximize the vote for [a] candidate like Ron Paul,” Sabato said. ”He has a dedicated band of supporters who will show up to vote in three feet of snow.”

Sabato said that Paul could win in Iowa and other caucus states ”as long as four or five candidates remain strong and in the contest.” He categorized a Paul victory as “possible but somewhat unlikely,” citing the likelihood that Republican voters would not be ”easily transferable to Paul because of his distinctive stands on some foreign and domestic policies.”…

Zogby noted that Paul “benefits from two factors, the first being an increase in the numbers of younger [voters] and intensity of his supporters. The second factor is that anti-government libertarians are running out of candidates to support.”

Bloomberg’s poll of Iowans found that Paul supporters were by far the most committed to their candidate. In the sub-set of voters who had firmly decided who to support, 32 percent supported Paul, 25 percent supported Romney and 17 percent supported Gingrich.