“You gotta have money to get the people out,” continued my informant. “It’s a muscle caucus, not a message place. They are used to it. You need money to hire the guys who are well connected to make sure the right people get to the caucus night. It’s not a vote; it’s a paid event. Romney, having waited for the other candidates to blow each other or themselves up, he can buy himself a victory gradually and steadily. Run around Iowa in person a little, get your guys to buy everyone you can, and get them to come out. Romney set this up perfectly. He learned from the last time, when it cost him too much money for not much. He set this up so whatever happens in January, it will be non-threatening to him. Then he goes and owns New Hampshire.”…

My observer was blunt about the Texas governor, and this was even before the brain-freeze moment in the Michigan debate. “Perry pierced the formula at first, when he skipped the [July Iowa] straw poll. The straw poll is a joke. You don’t have to buy your way onto the straw poll to be on the straw poll. Being on Fox puts you on the straw poll. But Perry collapsed because he was an imbecile afterward. Still, the right guys in Iowa are always looking for the steadiest, longest paycheck. When Perry jumped in, they thought, we’re gonna be paid until he goes through the caucus in January. The guys Perry hired will be there in January. But you can’t bring enough people to the caucus vote, because Romney and Paul already own a lot of loyalty. That’s why Perry is running ads. You don’t have to run ads in Iowa. It’s about the money in the right hands for turnout. And there are only so many right hands in the state. The Iowa Republican Party is dysfunctional. It’s the mercenaries who matter.”