Essentially, that means the Iowa caucus is a straw poll. In fact, Iowa’s Ames straw poll this summer (the one Bachmann won) attracted 16,892 people — a decent chunk of the primary-day electorate.
The other early-voting states tend to have more primary voters, but that doesn’t change the possibility that the Republican presidential nominee could be determined by a few thousand Iowans who aren’t typical voters or even typical Republican voters.
Most political observers rely on national polls or, at best, statewide polls to gauge the sentiments of presidential primary voters. But because the number of people who participate in the primaries is so small, the true sentiments of that electorate (and the likelihood of people to vote) are often less predictable than polls can handle. And those sentiments tend to be volatile and fickle.
For that reason, it would be foolish to rule out any candidate — even the former Godfather’s Pizza chief executive, who makes no attempt to watch his mouth.
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