Would they go to a third-party candidate?
Somebody will run as an independent in 2012. You don’t have 80 percent of voters saying we’re on the wrong track and not have an independent candidate. In 1992, Ross Perot carried 20 percent of the electorate with a pretty well-defined bloc that tended to be younger, white, male, and non-college. But right now, independents are so diverse that it’s not obvious that anyone could capture all of them. Trump might win the “fuck you” vote. Bloomberg might pick up more of the business-oriented suburban segments. I think the ideal candidate is probably a businessperson who’s not from the financial community, who has a strong anti-China current and a strong America-first current. I don’t see that person.
An angry America-first candidate … that sounds like a certain Texas governor.
Rick Perry’s fed-up attitude and anti-elitism might get the attention of blue-collar voters, but affluent suburbans who pulled away from Bush are going to move away from Perry. And remember, independents are also old people who want to protect their Medicare!