Thanks to the way the party’s primary contests are spread out next year — and the historical tendencies of GOP voters to favor past candidates — the former Massachusetts governor could hold a distinct edge in the big, delegate-rich states that vote later in the process.
“Mitt definitely gets the advantage if the nomination gets decided by big moderate states like California, New York and Pennsylvania that vote in May or June,” said Mary Ann Meloy, a former Reagan White House aide and a behind-the-scenes power in Pennsylvania GOP politics who is undecided on the GOP contest.
“The way the primaries are scheduled this time adds to the Romney edge,” added veteran pollster John McLaughlin.
Even if one candidate managed to win every delegate in every contest beginning with the Feb. 6 Iowa caucuses, the Feb. 14 New Hampshire primary, the Feb. 18 Nevada caucuses and the Feb. 28 South Carolina primary, he or she could not attain a majority of delegates until moderate New York and Pennsylvania vote on April 24 — by which time at least 1,223 delegates will have been elected.
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