Fed economists predict a 15-year bear market for stocks

We find that the actual P/E ratio should decline from about 15 in 2010 to about 8.3 in 2025.

The model-generated path for real stock prices implied by demographic trends is quite bearish. Real stock prices follow a downward trend until 2021.

On the brighter side, as the M/O ratio rebounds in 2025 (BK: M/O = Baby Boomers die), we should expect a strong stock price recovery. By 2030, our calculations suggest that the real value of equities will be about 20% higher than in 2010.