As we’ve seen over the last few years, even if the economy comes back, there’s no reason to believe the jobs picture will improve much. So Obama will be seeking re-election with the jobless rate far worse than the one he inherited — and worse than it was in the previous year.

He’ll argue that he inherited a crisis. Fine, most voters won’t blame him for the fact that the unemployment rate rose to 10 percent after the 2008 meltdown. But if it returns to that level after dropping to 8.9 percent, he’ll have no convincing defense.

To sum up: History says that five of seven presidents whose poll numbers hit the 30s either lost or dropped out. The two who won were able to run on economic numbers that left the public optimistic about the future.

Not now. Gallup says just 11 percent of Americans are satisfied with the country’s economic condition. And they hold Obama responsible: Just 26 percent approve of the job he’s doing on the economy.