Romney appears to have gotten a boost in recent weeks after the official announcement of his candidacy. Gallup’s prior update of May 20-24 came just after former co-leaders Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced they were not candidates for the nomination; that poll showed Romney and Palin in a virtual tie. Since then, Romney’s support has increased and Palin’s has been flat, leaving Romney with an eight-percentage-point advantage.
That is the largest numerical lead Gallup has measured for any candidate since it first began measuring nomination preferences in September…
Palin’s candidacy is far from assured, though her recent East Coast bus tour re-ignited talk of her joining the race. Should Palin not run, Romney would become a stronger front-runner. He holds a 17-point advantage over the nearest competitor, Herman Cain, when Palin’s votes are excluded and re-allocated to her supporters’ second choice. Under that scenario, six candidates essentially tie for second place with between 6% and 10% of the vote.
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