1) “Birtherism” not widespread and often not a hard belief

Polls on this have produced a consistent finding over the last year or so: Roughly one American in four reports the mistaken belief that the President was born outside the United States. But as former ABC News polling director Gary Langer argues, “[m]any people are expressing their opinion rather than an assertion of factual reality.” For some, he writes, that opinion amounts to an “‘expressed belief’ –- a statement intended to send a message, not claim a known fact.”

The polling results support his argument: An ABC News/Washington Post poll a year ago found that 20 percent believed Obama was born outside the United States, but half of that group said their answer was “suspicion only” (10 percent) rather than a belief based on “solid evidence” (9 percent).

Similarly, on the USA Today/Gallup poll conducted this past week, only 9 percent said that Obama was “definitely” born in another country, while 15 percent said the president was “probably” born elsewhere.

These expressed beliefs are likely not all reflex and partisan cheerleading, as political scientist John Sides argues, but we should take care not to interpret the polling results too literally. The percentages who say they believe Obama was born elsewhere are probably a complex mix of people with actual beliefs and those with intense antipathy to Obama generally.