How the GOP's new primary structure might favor Pawlenty

In past Republican presidential contests, most states used some version of a winner-take-all calculation to award delegates. That tends to allow a frontrunner to quickly build up an overwhelming lead. In 2008, the race was close in the early phase. Mike Huckabee won Iowa, with Romney placing second, and Fred Thompson, third. McCain took New Hampshire. Romney triumphed in Michigan and Nevada. McCain edged out Huckabee in South Carolina. The delegate count was competitive. Then came Florida—a pure winner-take-all-state. McCain beat Romney, 36 to 31 percent, and pocketed all 57 delegates. (The state lost half of its delegates because it held its primary early, in violation of GOP rules.)…

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Pawlenty has multiple reasons for relishing a No. 2 spot. It puts him within striking distance, and he’s poised to assume the lead, should Romney fizzle or flame out. He’s also not the candidate in the pack with a big bull’s-eye on his back. (That’s the frontrunner.) And this year, most important, a strong second-place-man will be able to bag more delegates than before. When Pawlenty looks in the mirror in the morning, he may be quite delighted to declare to himself, “We’re No. 2!”

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