The Arab Spring will last decades

What we’re watching right now is the painful creation of a new Middle East where, eventually, countries will be recognized as legitimate reflections of their people’s national identities, and governance will have the legitimacy of popular support. As Fromkin pointed out, after the fall of the Roman empire, it took Europe more than 1,500 years, and many disastrous wars, to get that far.

In the Middle East, the process won’t last that long. We’re probably talking decades rather than centuries. But those decades will be tough. And one of the great frustrations for the Western powers is that they’re not really going to be able to do much to affect the outcome. What Libya has shown us is that these powers only find the political will to act in extremis, to stop a massacre, not to build a country…

In December and January, Burson-Marsteller conducted a poll of Arabs aged 18 to 24 in 10 Middle Eastern countries, and the results published last month show just how quickly, and potently, political awareness has been growing. In 2008, only 50 percent of the respondents in that age group said “living in a democratic country” was important to them. At the beginning of this year—before any dictators had actually been overthrown—that figure had gone up to 92 percent. Clearly the Internet and social networking have played a role: In 2009, 56 percent used the Web daily, in 2010 the number was 80 percent, although most still get their news mainly from television.