Aside from concerns over the coherence and makeup of the rebel forces — as underscored by a public spat between two rivals, Khalifa Hifter (who returned from two decades in the U.S.) and former interior minister Mohammed Fatah-Younis who joined the rebels as their uprising began over who was in charge of the army — there’s a recognition that turning the rebels into a credible fighting force could take many months. France and Britain are reportedly already urging Arab countries to fund mercenary contractors to train the rebels. But going that route would require, at least in the near term, acceptance of a de facto partition of Libya into a rebel-held east and a Gaddafi-held west. Some analysts suggest such an outcome, reminiscent of the Balkans in the early ’90s, is the worst of all outcomes, both for the Libyan people themselves and for the international community. The Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Anthony Cordesman argues for a quick “regime-kill” option to settle matters before the coalition collapses, rather than accepting a stalemate under which Gaddafi profits from waning international enthusiasm for the operation over weeks and months, and many Libyans unfortunate enough to be in towns controlled by his forces suffer ongoing brutality.
But that proposal doesn’t deal with many of the potential consequences that may be holding Western powers back. It’s a safer bet, right now, that that the battlefield stalemate produces some form of truce — although not for some time, yet. Both sides, in fact have set out their opening bids on cease-fire terms, but neither side is remotely ready to accept the other’s bottom lines. Gaddafi insists on maintaining himself or his sons in charge over any political transition; the rebels insist there will be no peace as long at they remain in Tripoli — and the Western powers will not accept Gaddafi setting the terms. So there will be an escalation of fighting in the days and possibly weeks ahead, but not to the level needed to bring the war to a decisive and rapid end by storming Gaddafi’s citadels. Instead, the military contest for each side right now presupposes an eventual truce, and is aimed at shaping its terms.
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