The thing about Mr. Romney is that, perhaps uniquely among the Republican field, he qualifies for both groups. Due to a series of idiosyncrasies, he has “home-field advantage” in a number of early-voting states: he now has a residence in New Hampshire (and was governor in neighboring Massachusetts); his father was governor of Michigan; his Mormonism will make him very difficult to beat in Nevada.

What about Iowa? That’s less certain; most of the early polls show Mr. Romney running second there behind Mike Huckabee, whom he lost to in 2008. But if he were able to in Iowa, Mr. Romney would very probably follow it with wins in New Hampshire, Nevada and Michigan, which would make him the heavy favorite to win the nomiantion.

But Mr. Romney, also, will probably have the most money from among the Republican candidates (other than, perhaps, Donald Trump). He may have the strongest argument about electability, since he polls relatively well against Barack Obama. He’s run for president before, and in 2008, he accumulated a lot of delegates in a lot of different states, including in some that other candidates ignored. Mr. Romney, therefore, could potentially win the nomination as a “long haul” candidate as well.