Despite being from the same state, Ms. Bachmann does not share a fund-raising base with Mr. Pawlenty, who will appeal to the more traditional, establishment crowd. But if she ends up as the surprise winner in Iowa, much like Mike Huckabee was in 2008, she could easily upset Mr. Pawlenty’s carefully laid plans…

All indications are that Ms. Palin is content to wait months — perhaps into the fall — before deciding whether to jump into the presidential contest. By then, Ms. Bachmann may well have begun to capitalize on her conservative, outsider, antimainstream-media message.