What lesson is Iran learning from all this?

What are we incentivizing here? If you’re a thug regime and you just want to be left alone to brutalize your people, the best thing to do is get yourself a small, easily affordable nuclear program. The Iranians, for example, have offered to share their nuclear know-how with Sudan. If you’re the Sudanese government (which has killed far more civilians than Gaddafi) and you’re watching what’s happening on your north-western border, doesn’t that offer look a lot more attractive today?