An oil apocalypse is no longer implausible

This neglect contributed to the many factors underlying the current wave of civil unrest, especially to the region’s stagnant incomes and unemployment rates. Now, with the contagion spreading to the oil-congested area of the Arabian Peninsula and Persian Gulf, the likelihood of an oil apocalypse is no longer implausible: in such a scenario, domestic upheaval would bring civil strife and violence, which in turn would lead to a reduction or cessation of oil production. A true apocalyptic scenario would see these events take place in major producers such as Saudi Arabia…

The many domestic factors that have led to the recent turmoil across the region are not going to disappear in 2011. Virtually no oil-producing country in the region has been able to diversify its economy away from oil. Almost all are seeing domestic oil consumption rising rapidly as governments subsidize gasoline, diesel, and power in an attempt to deliver material well-being to their citizens. Cheap energy is critical to the legitimacy of these regimes, making price spikes politically difficult. So far, only Iran has been able to raise domestic gasoline prices — and that is only because of its lack of refining capacity and the squeeze of the U.S.-led embargo on gasoline deliveries to the country. Oil consumption within the Gulf countries rose from 4.8 million barrels a day in 2000 to 7.8 million in 2010, eroding exports and raising the minimum price of oil needed for oil-producing states to break even on their extraction and production costs. As a result, those states dependent on oil from the region are facing troubling prospects: a near-term loss of supply due to the current disruption and a longer-term loss of supply due to growth in domestic consumption.