In fact, gas prices correlate far more negatively with a president’s standing than the unemployment rate (for wonks, -.53 compared to -.14). For the non-wonks, that’s a strong indication that gas prices matter more politically than unemployment.
The return of even $4 a gallon gas could undercut Obama’s political recovery because it would undermine the economic recovery. “I don’t know that it actually pushes us into a recession but it would be very uncomfortable,” Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi recently said of $4 gasoline on Bloomberg Television…
The record average gas price is $4.11 a gallon. That was July 2008. The issue was so politically explosive that both John McCain and Hillary Clinton looked for cover by proposing the fiscally dubious federal gas tax holiday. At that time, more Americans viewed energy as a serious concern than at the low point of the 1979 energy crisis. Gas prices faded with the economic crash. But it’s a fresh reminder that gas can quickly, often unforeseeably, spread into presidential politics — even if one national candidate is not proclaiming “Drill baby drill.”
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