“Last cycle was interminably long, and deleterious to everyone in GOP field. Candidates got the message: don’t pin your picture to the media dartboard first. Don’t set yourself up as the first and only target for all the other potential candidates,” Castellanos said. “This is a more mature GOP field that learned from the political experience of the last campaign. Candidates feel that Obama is vulnerable and whichever GOP candidate is left standing at the end, could win the general. So everybody is finding it wise not to risk everything early.”

But the candidates are not all in the same position. “If you have the ability to put together $30 to $50 million quick then you can take your time,” Fabrizio said. “Otherwise, the delay actually favors frontrunners like Romney.”…

Palin, Romney and Huckabee can delay. A Daniels or Pawlenty lack the same luxury. Politics flattens with the years but the primary is not digital. Face time counts in Iowa and New Hampshire. These are voters who expect to be personally, and repeatedly, courted. Those old fashioned markers of one’s standing in Iowa never matter as much as the hype has it. But they do provide metrics to filter out the improbable. “If you don’t come in first, second or third, in the Iowa Straw Poll, where are you?” asked Fabrizio.