By early 2010, Mr. Mubarak’s government began taking steps widely viewed as aimed at extending his rule or that of his anointed successor. In May, he extended martial law in his country by two years.

The Egypt Working Group sent a letter to the State Department even more alarmist than the one it dispatched in April. “The renewal…heightens our concern that the administration’s practice of quiet diplomacy is not bearing fruit,” it read…

For analysts tracking Egypt, the risks inherent in the elections were clear. “If the ruling party plops someone in as president…then you really have the possibility of the lid popping off in Egypt,” Robert Kagan, a Working Group member and conservative foreign-policy analyst, said in a November interview. “We’re playing this Cold War game of clinging to the dictator for fear of something more radical.”