The magic number: Can Obama get reelected with 8% unemployment?

According to a recent study by Matt McDonald of Hamilton Place Strategies, there have been four presidential elections since 1960 in which the unemployment rate was above 7 percent: 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1992. In three of these four elections, the incumbent party lost. Ronald Reagan won in 1984, at a time of 7.2 percent unemployment.

To get below 8 percent, the economy has to create about 215,000 jobs per month by Election Day 2012, according to McDonald, which seems highly unlikely. Still, the trend matters.

Reagan won in 1984 in part because unemployment, while still high, had dropped 1.3 percentage points in the year before the election.

So even if Obama cannot get below 8 percent, he could still win. The president “would see an improved political position from a significant drop in the unemployment rate,” McDonald said.