Graham actually has slightly positive approval numbers with Republican primary voters at 42% happy with his performance to 40% who disapprove. But those numbers are far, far worse than Mike Castle’s and Lisa Murkowski’s were with GOP primary voters in their states and that didn’t stop them from being taken out in the primary.

Certainly a lot will change between now and 2014- Graham may be able to assuage the conservative base between now and then or the fever for a Tea Party purge may die down, especially if Barack Obama wins reelection because Republicans nominate someone seen as outside the mainstream. But Graham would be in deep, deep trouble if he was up this cycle and time is about the only thing he has on his side when its comes to reckoning with the GOP electorate in his home state.