If groups like NOM are to have their agenda influence the coming presidential election, they’ll need candidates to think tea partyers care about their issues. This is why they drew a line in the sand at CPAC—a line that potential GOP presidential candidates like Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, and front-runner-for-now Mitt Romney promptly crossed. So far, the only leading Republican to join the boycott is South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint. (Marco Rubio and Sarah Palin are skipping for what they say are unrelated reasons.) DeMint’s the guy who once said gay people shouldn’t be teachers. He’s also said that a person “can’t be a fiscal conservative and not be a social conservative.” Half the tea party would disagree.

A general fear of gay people—that they are out to change the American way of life—was a force in the 2004 and 2006 elections, thanks to Karl Rove, who worked with the GOP to put gay referenda on local ballots as a way to boost right-wing turnout. In 2008, gay-marriage bans again appeared on state ballots. In tea-party 2010, the Republicans didn’t need to try the move again. Now, with the fizzling of the CPAC boycott, it seems this brand of fear-mongering has lost its usefulness. Even “family values” champion Rick Santorum will speak at CPAC, willing to let the issue slide in the interest of wooing a larger voting bloc.