But, even if this analysis of the GOP landscape is accurate, there’s at least one other candidate who will try to occupy a “center-right” niche in the field, and he happens to be another wealthy Mormon with deep Utah roots: Mitt Romney. What does Huntsman bring to the table that the vastly better-known Romney, who has already run for president and has been building a campaign machine for years, does not already bring? Other than a connection to Obama that’s even more tangible and problematic than the similarities between Romney’s health care plan in Massachusetts and the president’s national one? That’s hard to say. On the one hand, Huntsman could make Romney’s route to the nomination a lot more difficult by splitting votes in Nevada, an early primary state next door to Utah where Romney did well in 2008. But it seems far more likely that a Huntsman candidacy could help Romney in the long run, because Mitt would no longer be the GOP candidate opponents could point to as being closest to Obama.

Indeed, don’t bet on Huntsman having a successful primary season (if he runs at all). The Iowa caucuses, for instance, which gave Romney fits in 2008, could be a death trap for Huntsman, given Iowa conservatives’ obsessions with the gay marriage issue. And, while Huntsman’s cabal of proto-supporters includes several key operatives from the 2000 and 2008 McCain operations in South Carolina, the ambassador does not look like a natural fit in a state whose two dominant Republican politicians are Tea Party favorites: Jim DeMint and Nikki Haley. They both endorsed Romney in 2008, and Governor Haley got Romney’s endorsement in 2010—but there’s a strong chance they’ll endorse a more conservative candidate in 2012.