Since Tuesday the administration has been frantically trying to catch up with events, and at last has begun to adjust its policy. On Wednesday, Clinton appeared before reporters to say, “We support the universal rights of the Egyptian people, including the rights to freedom of expression, association and assembly.” The White House press secretary suddenly declined to endorse Mubarak, and administration briefers assured reporters that Obama had supported the reform cause all along…

Those demands are coherent and eminently reasonable: Mubarak should step down and be replaced by a transitional government, headed by ElBaradei and including representatives of all pro-democracy forces. That government could then spend six months to a year rewriting the constitution, allowing political parties to freely organize and preparing for genuinely democratic elections. Given time to establish themselves, secular forces backed by Egypt’s growing middle class are likely to rise to the top in those elections – not the Islamists that Mubarak portrays as the only alternative.

Some argue that the United States has little ability to influence Egypt. This ignores the fact that Washington continues to supply the country with billions in aid and is the primary source of weapons and hard currency for the Egyptian military – the likely arbitrator in a showdown between Mubarak and the opposition. In fact, U.S. support for a peaceful transition from Mubarak’s government to a new democracy could be decisive – and it is not too late to take the right side.