*** Shades of 2004? While it’s still very early, and we don’t yet know who’ll actually run, the potential GOP presidential field right now looks very similar to the Democratic one that lined up against George W. Bush in 2004. Consider: Mitt Romney is John Kerry (the early front-runner from Massachusetts who looks the part but is viewed negatively as a flip-flopper); John Thune is John Edwards (the good-looking young senator who’s better known for winning a Senate race than the legislation he’s produced); Sarah Palin is Joe Lieberman (the ex-VP nominee who’s not trusted by some in the party); Newt Gingrich is Dick Gephardt (the nationally known former House leader); Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels are Bob Graham (the respected grown-up who’s viewed more enthusiastically by the elites than the base); and Herman Cain is Al Sharpton (the long-shot who grabs headlines).

*** Who is Dean — or the anti-Dean? One Republican who could have fired up the GOP base as did Dean with Democrats in 2003-2004 was Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, but he ruled out a White House bid yesterday and appears likely to run for governor instead. (Pence had a real opportunity to be the Mike Huckabee of the 2012 cycle: someone who makes a name for himself and perhaps grabs a TV contract. But running for governor means that he’s running to win someday. Perhaps 2016 or 2020 but we now know Pence has the ambition to be, well, more than just another famous conservative on TV.) But is there anyone else out there? And what about Tim Pawlenty, who almost seems to be a cinch to run? View the former Minnesota governor as a kind of anti-Howard Dean. While Dean fired up a despondent Democratic base, the GOP doesn’t really need to get fired up after the 2010 midterms. What T-Paw does is add Minnesota Nice to an enthusiastic Tea Party movement.