Take Florida and Ohio, for example. The Sunshine State was the hub of the 2000 contest, while the Buckeye State was the definitive swing state of the 2004 race.

Let’s assume Obama loses them both – plausible if not certain, given where he stands in polls in each state. If he managed to hold the 26 other states he won in 2008, Obama would be reelected with 318 electoral votes – 32 more than George W. Bush won when he was reelected in 2004 and 47 more than he won in 2000.

Of course, given Obama’s slippage in traditional Republican redoubts at the presidential level, it’s hard to imagine that he would hold together the rest of his state-by-state coalition if he lost those two states.

So let’s add Indiana (11 electoral votes), North Carolina (15) and Virginia (13) to his potential 2012 losses. (He was the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Indiana and Virginia since 1964 and the first one to win North Carolina since 1976.)

Take those five states from Obama and give him the 23 others he won in 2008 and he will be reelected with 279 electoral votes.