An early sign of Palin’s viability in New Hampshire could come this weekend when the 493 members of the Republican State Committee vote in a straw poll for the GOP’s presidential nomination. Several New Hampshire GOP politicos forecast that Palin’s absence from the state will catch up with her, with one predicting she would have “nothing going” and another saying they “wouldn’t be surprised if she is last.”

“In a state that puts a premium on personal contact, the question on Saturday will be whether — or how badly — that’s hurting her among the party faithful,” said one New Hampshire Republican who spoke candidly about the straw poll on the condition of anonymity. “Political celebrities tend to falter here — just ask George W. Bush and Rudy Giuliani.”…

Fergus Cullen, a former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, sees New Hampshire’s omission from Palin’s schedule as a deliberate political choice and argues: “This isn’t by accident. … They’ve made a decision not to come to New Hampshire, and people have noticed.”