On the eve of the election for the Republican national chairman, five contenders made their closing arguments on Thursday to party officials from across the country who gathered here at the National Harbor resort outside Washington. The secret balloting, set to begin Friday afternoon, goes round after round until someone wins 85 votes from the 168-member committee.

While there was no preordained winner, a daylong series of interviews suggested that one point was clear: Michael Steele, the embattled chairman, has most likely not gained enough support to win a second term. He flashed a wide smile as he breezed through the hallways, saying he was confident of re-election, but party leaders said a consensus had emerged that it was time for a new direction.

“The message is rather clear: He just can’t be the next chairman,” said John H. Sununu of New Hampshire, a former governor who is his state’s Republican chairman. “A significant segment of the donor community has said they won’t contribute if he’s chairman. He should read the message and move on.”