Allow me to apologize in advance if that final header is a bit on the blunt side, but it’s time to face up to some harsh realities here. President Obama should be vulnerable in the next election given the current arc of the economy, but his personal popularity and the power of incumbency still make him a formidable opponent. For a Republican to beat him it’s either going to take somebody who already holds enough popularity to finish the march to the finish line or a new face with a lot of room to grow in both name recognition and approval.

Sadly, you don’t fill the bill for either description. You have an impressive army of followers who are loyal to the bitter end, but that’s exactly what the end will be. There is virtually no one left in the country that hasn’t gotten to know you and formed an opinion, and there are no second chances at a first impression in this game. Your disapproval numbers are north of fifty and stubbornly show no signs of budging. If you run you’ll probably come close, but close won’t be good enough. The president knows he is in trouble politically and your best indicator of your prospects should come from looking at a boatload of those less than $200 “anonymous” contributions that have been mailed in to SarahPAC lately. (Hint — they’re coming from Obama.)