MacDonald thinks it’s not too late to turn these trends around. She argues that the United States and its allies need to make clear why they’ve come and explain why Afghans will have a better future working with the coalition and the Afghan government.

People want electricity, for example, so she suggests a simple choice: Future with us, lights on; future with Taliban, lights off.

To improve the U.S. image with young Afghans, MacDonald has an innovative plan for a “marriage allowance” scheme to help them finance their most passionate ambition.

Gen. David Petraeus has stepped up the “enemy-centric” side of counterinsurgency, tripling the number of U.S. Special Operations raids from a year ago. But MacDonald’s polling data make clear that the “protect the population” side isn’t succeeding yet. The trends are improving, but not enough.