Crist wouldn’t have won even if Meek had dropped out

PPP’s Tom Jensen points out that there is little enthusiasm among African-Americans — about 15 percent of Florida’s population — for Crist. That’s part of the reason that Crist’s unfavorable rating among Democrats has often been over 25 percent. (Generally, a party’s nominee will have much lower unfavorables among his or her base.)

There’s also the problem that, if Meek had dropped out and Crist were to become the de facto Democratic nominee, the governor almost certainly would lose some portion of the 15 to 20 percent of Republicans that he has been pulling. PPP tested this, finding that Crist’s support among Republicans would have plummeted to the low single digits if he promised to caucus with Democrats in the Senate…

About the only thing that might have saved Crist would have been if Meek dropped out, enthusiastically endorsed the governor and spent the remaining days campaigning around the state for him. It’s hard to imagine Meek doing that ever, however, given the vitriol he leveled at Crist since becoming the party’s nominee on Aug. 24.