At this point, the story of the election is the number of statewide races that were supposed to be competitive that aren’t. This morning’s poll in Ohio suggests that Ohio’s Senate race isn’t going to be all that competitive, and neither is the governor’s race. In Pennsylvania, Patrick Toomey leads by a bunch and Tom Corbett leads by a bunch more. Democrats will not be able to translate the Mark Sanford scandal into any serious traction in South Carolina’s governor’s race, and in that state’s Senate race… well, you know.
Michigan will not have a competitive governor’s race. There was a lot of talk that Democrat Bill White was capable of making the Texas governor’s race competitive, but so far he trails by a significant margin, except for the occasional outlying poll. Barring some dramatic change, Democrat Rory Reid will not make a serious run at Nevada’s governorship. In Tennessee, Republicans will win the governor’s mansion. In one of the great under-the-radar races of this cycle, Republican Paul LePage is a strong favorite to be the next governor of Maine. You can almost put Wisconsin in this pile, too.