Midterm, the prognosis does not look at all good for Obama and his party. In the longer term, the outlook is more encouraging. The Tea partyists are destroying moderate Republicans or forcing Republicans previously considered to be centrists – John McCain is the best known example – to move to the right in order to save their skins. The Republicans will ultimately suffer from being dragged further away from the centre.
The economy will not stay this way forever. All bets are off in the event of a double-dip, but if a reasonable level of prosperity has returned by the time of the next presidential election, Americans will be feeling better about themselves. That will put them in more of a mood to appreciate a generally impressive president whom the world regards as a credit to their country. Three of the last four presidents were re-elected having been in dire positions – much worse than the slump affecting Obama now – during their first term.
My money is still on Obama winning a second term and probably handsomely. And if he doesn’t? He has already accomplished more in half a term than many presidents manage to achieve in two.
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