The stronger Obama looks, the better Romney's chances of being nominated

If he’s going to win the nomination, he needs to co-opt some of the populist zeal that a Palin or a Huckabee — or even a Newt Gingrich, who’s busy railing against the American elite from his perch inside the Beltway — will seek to use against him. But if he goes too cynically populist, he risks alienating the establishment, and seeing a Daniels or a Barbour (or a Bush) move in and take his place.

In a sense, the stronger President Obama looks next year, the better Romney’s chances of being nominated. He needs the prospect of an uphill general-election battle to keep his potential rivals for establishment support safely on the sidelines. And then he needs that same establishment to rally around him once the primary voting starts — not out of love or admiration, but out of fear of the populist alternative.