A few things stand out. First, all of the tossup states are states that went for Barack Obama in the last election, and all except for Colorado and Ohio gave him double-digit wins. Second, the plight of the three incumbent Democratic Governors here is probably worse than their poll numbers show. All three are incumbents running below 45% in the polls, which is usually the kiss of death for an incumbent (one possible exception is O’Malley, who is running against a former Governor; normal “incumbent 50% rule” observations may not apply in this situation). Third, a lot of these races are extremely close, and could turn on a dime.
Now it is by no means certain that the GOP will win all of these races, or even most of them. A case in point is Colorado, where GOP frontrunner Scott McInnis is imploding over a plagiarism scandal, and where the alternative has about $30,000 cash-on-hand.
Going off of the RCP Averages and latest polls, if the election were today, Republicans would be looking at a 11 seat pickup, leaving the nation’s state houses split, 35 – 14 – 1 in favor of the GOP. That would be a 23% swing in governorships toward the Republicans. To put that in perspective, consider the following chart of the fifteen biggest swings in governorships, and the accompanying swing in House seats…
Join the conversation as a VIP Member