Lichtman’s system is based on 13 political conditions that he calls “keys.” The keys favor the incumbent president’s party: When five or fewer of them are false, the incumbent party wins the presidency. If six or more are false, the opposition party wins. In 2007, Lichmann predicted that any Democratic candidate — Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama — would have beaten John McCain.

Only four of the 13 keys (outlined here) are currently in the “false” column for President Obama. Counting against him are the facts that he has not achieved a major foreign policy victory, that his party will lose seats in the House of Representatives, and that per-capita economic growth does not exceed the two previous presidential terms. “True” keys include: there is no serious contest for the Democratic Party nomination, Obama has not presided over a major foreign policy failure, and his administration has achieved “major changes in national policy.”