Finally, let’s see what the model would predict Obama’s approval ratings would look like if his governance had been well-received, even in spite of the poor economy. We’ll assume that he enjoyed a typical honeymoon and that his early domestic agenda early had been quite popular*. Let’s also assume that Congress had quickly passed a modest health care bill in November of last year with some bipartisan support, that a modest energy bill passed in March, and that his response to the oil spill had been stronger…
If Obama’s Presidency had been marked mostly by achievements that were perceived positively by the public, he would be viewed quite positively today, even with a faltering economy. We can also conclude, by the way, that the conservative narrative of Obama’s Presidency as an unmitigated disaster in every month is problematic as well; he’d be somewhere in the mid-thirties if that were the case, at least under the terms of this model.
In other words, even accounting for the state of the economy, the nature of the policy narrative surrounding Obama’s Presidency is the difference between an approval in the high 50s and an approval in the high 30s. That’s obviously a substantial difference.
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