After Thatcher, conservatism in Britain became radioactive. As Tony Blair moved the Labour Party to the center, the Tories moved right, became extreme and thus politically unviable. Their vote totals fell to historic lows, which partly explains why they have not become a majority despite the largest gain in parliamentary seats since the 1930s. Cameron has tried to return the party to the center on all kinds of issues—from the environment to gay rights—but he still has not earned all the public’s trust. Minorities and working women still find it hard to vote Tory (so do Scots, but that’s another matter).
The reaction to the budget, though, shows that he’s got the right idea—politically at least. Ever since the end of the Cold War, pundits have been eager to declare political realignments. When Bill Clinton and Blair won, observers hailed a liberal wave; victories by Newt Gingrich and George W. Bush were thought to herald new conservative majorities. In 2008 the U.S. moved left, and in 2010 the U.K. moved right. But the truth is, since the Cold War ended, most people haven’t voted based on deep ideological divides. The majority gravitate toward the center and search for a party or person who seems to reflect their sensibilities, attitudes, and feelings. They want a modern party that feels as though it understands the world we live in. That’s why they can vote for Clinton and then Bush, for Blair and then Cameron.
Cameron’s coalition with the Liberal Democrats might actually give him the cover he needs to modernize his party even further. When someone in the Tory right wing pushes a policy, he can explain that he simply can’t accept it because the coalition will fall apart.
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