It's time to let Turkey into the European Union

It may be that Turkey’s EU dream is doomed to die. The Europeans, led by France and Germany, are clearly getting cold feet about Turkish accession and are bitterly regretting all those promises they made years ago. But formally the EU is still committed to a process of negotiating with Turkey over Turkish accession, and in the EU system those formal agreements still count. If Turkey gives up on the EU, or if the catastrophically shortsighted Europeans fail to grasp how essential to Europe’s own peace and power Turkish membership is, the effects in Turkey will be profound. The pro- and anti-Kemalist, secular and religious wings of Turkish society will be much closer to conflict and the armed forces will lose some of their inhibitions against military rule. The danger that despair would drive more Kurds toward a violent path cannot be ignored, and given the vast flow of arms and black market money in the region (think of the wars in the Caucasus and Russia’s campaigns against insurgent movements among its own minorities) the potential for serious mayhem cannot be overlooked.

That EU dream may die someday — but it cannot be in Turkey’s interest to kill it. The EU remains Turkey’s best bet; carving out the best possible economic and political deal in the short- to medium-term combined with a path to full ultimate membership however winding and long is Turkey’s best choice. A Turkish offer to defer immediate membership in exchange for a firmer ultimate commitment combined with an advantageous deal now would let the current generation of EU politicians off the hook. That deal could be structured to give Turkey a greater political voice in EU decision making as well as some concrete advantages on trade terms and aid for Turkey’s poorer regions. With Greece both weakened and looking to Turkey for help to rebuild its economy, some of the usual voices raised against Turkish goals may be weaker than usual in Europe. The EU is the world’s largest consumer market; Turkey should use the opportunities it now has to cut a deal with the EU that gives it more of the substantial real benefits of membership while holding back on formally joining the club. The US should be working in Europe and Ankara to help facilitate a development that would help all concerned…

Ataturk’s western orientation was partly about cementing Turkey’s place in the richer and more technologically advanced west; it was also about sealing Turkey off from the divisive conflicts in the east. Frustration with the west is understandably leading some Turks to look east; the results are more likely to vindicate Ataturk’s view of Turkish national strategy than to refute it.