There is still a sense about Mr. Obama that he needs George W. Bush in order to give his presidency full shape and meaning. In this he is like Jimmy Carter, who needed Richard Nixon, or rather the Watergate scandal, which made him president. Mr. Carter needed Richard Nixon standing in the corner looking like he’d spent the night sleeping in his suit as it hangs in the closet. The image is from Joe McGinnis’s “The Selling of the President, 1968.” Mr. Carter needed to be able to point at Nixon and say, “I’m not him. He dirty, me clean. You hate him, like me.” Carter’s presidency was given coherence and meaning by Nixon, Watergate, and without it that presidency seemed formless. Mr. Obama, in the same way, needs Mr. Bush standing in the corner like Boo Radley, saying “Let’s invade something!” But Mr. Bush is wisely back home in Texas finishing a book, and the president never sounds weaker than when he suggests his predicament is all his predecessor’s fault.

Mr. Obama needs Mr. Bush in the corner and doesn’t have him. That’s part of why he looks so alone out there.

And seems so snakebit, so at the mercy of forces. When you’re snakebit you get some sympathy, and some will come. With all the president’s woe there will be some counter-reaction among commentators, journalists and others. There will likely be among the Democratic leadership, too. “Love him or not he’s what we’ve got, and he’s what we have for the next two years. Help the guy, cool the criticism, punch back for him.” But it’s also true that among Democrats—and others—when the talk turns to the presidency it turns more and more to Hillary Clinton. “We may have made a mistake. She would have been better.” Sooner or later the secretary of state is going to come under fairly consistent pressure to begin to consider 2012. A hunch: She won’t really want to. Because she has enjoyed being loyal. She didn’t only prove to others she could be loyal, a team player. She proved it to herself. And it has only added to her luster.