Angle polls the weakest against Reid; Lowden is the strongest — This is one of the biggest misconceptions out there. The most recent poll – the Mason Dixon poll taken from June 1-June 3 – shows Angle leading Reid by a 44-41% margin, as opposed to Lowden, who trails the Majority lead by a point. Tarkanian led by seven. Earlier polls show Angle performing worse, but that is likely as much a function of lower name identification (her surge has only begun in the last couple of weeks) than anything else. Tarkanian actually polls the best out of the three, but as noted above, he’s been flying under the radar.
Moreover, none of this changes the fact that, in polling terms, Reid is a dead man walking no matter who he faces. In the past two months, he’s polled a 37, 39, 39, 42, and 42 against Lowden. His numbers against Tarkanian are 41, 41, 43 and 39, while his numbers against Angle are 40, 42, 43, and 41. The only numbers that change are voters flipping between Lowden/Tarkanian/Angle and undecided.
Not only are these numbers virtually identical in statistical terms, they are uniformly atrocious for someone who has been a fixture in Nevada politics since Nixon’s first term, and only a handful of politicians with these types of poll numbers five months out from an election have gone on to win.
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