Crist's chances: Slim and none

“I don’t think they have an actual strategic plan. All the things around Charlie—the pollsters, media, oppo guys—all that stuff’s gone. The party’s turning his cell phone off at 5 o’clock,” said GOP media consultant Rick Wilson. “It is extraordinarily difficult to put a plan like this into practice.”

Even before leaving the party, Crist had a bare-bones campaign team that lacked even a political director.

“He couldn’t put an organization together as a Republican, so he’s not going to pull it together as an independent,” said a former adviser.

Ana Navarro, a Florida GOP fundraiser and Rubio backer was more blunt: “In Florida, organization—grassroots, voter turnout, early voting mobilization, volunteers, phone banking, absentee ballots–can amount to two-to-four [percentage] points. And Charlie Crist has no machinery, no base, no statewide organization. Meek and Rubio both have their own and party organizations.”