No, the Republicans don't have a 2012 problem (yet)

Is 60% of the white vote infeasible? Well, right now Gallup has Obama’s approval among white adults at 39%.

Oh, and Obama is at 62% approval among Hispanic adults according to Gallup. He won 67% of Hispanic voters in 2008. Such a drop-off would result in about a one point swing in the nationwide popular vote. A GOP popular vote victory of 1% or more would almost certainly tip the Electoral College.

Of course, I can cite you numbers and statistics to push back on the “emerging Democratic majority” theme until you and I are both totally exhausted. Lord knows I’ve been doing that for the last year and a half. But I think it’s time for us to learn to coexist with this argument – it ain’t going nowhere. Its advocates have enough ad hoc addenda they can toss onto it to account for anything at all. Dems are winning? Emerging Democratic majority! Dems are losing? Emerging Democratic majority!