Is 2010 really another 1994?

Yet 1994 seems an imprecise way to predict how this contest will play out. While there are intriguing parallels, there are some important differences as well. And though Democrats might look to those differences as glimmers of light — “There are so many things different from ’94 that I think this will turn out very differently,” said Stanley Greenberg, who was the White House pollster in 1994 — the divergences seem as likely to benefit Republicans as Democrats, analysts in both parties said…

“It is no shock that this is going to be a hard cycle,” said Jon Vogel, the executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “People didn’t know that until late 1994; they ended their campaigns with money in the bank.”

In 1994, Mr. Gaylord said, “there weren’t four people in America who thought we were going to win control of the House on Election Day.” He added: “Now we’ve been talking about this since last November. What this does is allows incumbents to build up lots of dough and try to reposition themselves.”

Moreover, the Republican Party has a different image than it did in 1994. At that time, Republicans had been out of control of Congress for long enough that they were able to present themselves as the party of change. They were viewed unfavorably by just 39 percent of Americans. By contrast, 57 percent said in February that they had an unfavorable view of Republicans in a New York Times/CBS News poll.