Is the Supreme Court actually shifting ... right?

As Tom Goldstein of ScotusBlog put it after analyzing Sotomayor’s appellate record, “Our surveys of her opinions put her in essentially the same ideological position as Justice Souter.” From her conduct on the bench so far, there’s no reason to change that assessment.

By contrast, it’s likely, although not certain, that a Stevens replacement will be more conservative than the retiring justice. If so, this would be largely in line with history. In an interview with Jeffrey Rosen for the New York Times Magazine in 2007, Stevens noted, “including myself, every judge who’s been appointed to the court since Lewis Powell (chosen by Richard Nixon in 1971) has been more conservative than his or her predecessor.” Stevens excepted Ginsburg, who replaced the more conservative Byron White.

In any event, Stevens’s replacement is almost certain not to be as influential a player on the left as the departing justice. As the court’s senior associate justice, Stevens spoke immediately after the chief justice during the court’s discussion of cases; he had the power to assign opinions and some influence with swing justices such as Kennedy and, before her departure, Sandra Day O’Connor.